October 26 – November 1, 2026
Arsenal win at Anfield as City stumbleFootball week report
Arsenal left Anfield with a 1-0 win and the Premier League summit to themselves, while Manchester City lost at home to Brighton despite 21 shots. Lazio hit six at Sassuolo and Barcelona six against Alaves.
MATCH PULSE EditorialPublished 10 min read
Few weeks pack so much into so few days. Kai Havertz's 16th-minute goal decided Liverpool against Arsenal on Sunday, and Arsenal lead the table on 24 points from nine games. A day earlier, Manchester City had dominated Brighton and still lost 1-0 to Yasin Ayari's early strike, a result that leaves Brighton third and City second.
Goals came in bunches elsewhere. Lazio won 6-2 at Sassuolo on Tuesday, with Tijjani Noslin scoring twice, and Barcelona beat Alaves 6-1 with two goals each for Raphael Dias Belloli and Lamine Yamal. Real Madrid won 3-0 at Racing Santander, and Atletico Madrid beat Levante 2-0 to hold second in La Liga.
The bottom of the Premier League also moved. Chelsea beat Manchester United 2-0, Tottenham won 2-0 against Crystal Palace despite 34 shots to 2, and Coventry beat Sunderland 3-1. Our model's insights came through in 9 of 18 cases this week.
La Liga · Monday, October 26
Sevilla make the chances count against Osasuna
Sevilla opened the week with a 2-0 win over Osasuna on Monday 26 October. Isaac Romero scored in the 24th minute and Felix Correia added the second in the 82nd. Osasuna had more of the ball, 56% to 44%, but Sevilla carried the threat: 17 shots to 10, seven on target to two, and expected goals of 1.18 to 0.79. The win lifts Sevilla to sixth on 17 points from 11 games, inside the Conference League qualification places. Osasuna are 15th on 11 points.
Isaac Romero 24', Felix Correia 82'
How our model read it
No settled insights for this match.
SevillaMatch statsOsasuna
Serie A · Tuesday, October 27
Lazio run riot at Sassuolo in a six-goal rout
Lazio won 6-2 at Sassuolo on Tuesday 27 October. Kenneth Taylor scored after two minutes and Kristian Thorstvedt equalised in the seventh. Gustav Isaksen and Romano Floriani Mussolini then made it 3-1 by the 16th. Sebastiano Esposito pulled one back in the 43rd, but Mattia Zaccagni struck in first-half stoppage time and Tijjani Noslin added two more, in the 55th and 65th minutes. Lazio's expected goals of 3.41 to 0.82 and eight shots on target to two show how complete it was. They lead Serie A on 28 points, while Sassuolo are 15th on 8. Our model's leans towards Lazio, at 64% and 55%, both came through.
Kristian Thorstvedt 7', Sebastiano Esposito 43'Kenneth Taylor 2', Gustav Isaksen 13', Romano Floriani Mussolini 16', Mattia Zaccagni 45+1', Tijjani Noslin 55', Tijjani Noslin 65'
How our model read it
- Lazio -0.25Model 55%Came through
- Lazio (draw void)Model 64%Came through
2 of 2 insights came through
SassuoloMatch statsLazio
La Liga · Friday, October 30
Cabrera's second-half goal sinks Villarreal at La Cerámica
Villarreal dominated the ball and lost anyway. Espanyol won 0-1 at La Cerámica on Friday 30 October, Leandro Cabrera scoring in the 60th minute. The hosts had 63% possession, 14 shots to 5 and expected goals of 0.92 to 0.26, but only four efforts hit the target against Espanyol's three. Espanyol move to 14th on 11 points from 11 games, while Villarreal stay eighth on 12. Our model's lean towards Espanyol with a +1.25 handicap, at 55%, came through, as did its 37% lean towards a draw or an Espanyol win.
Leandro Cabrera 60'
How our model read it
- Espanyol +1.25Model 55%Came through
- Espanyol (draw void)Model 23%Came through
- Draw or EspanyolModel 37%Came through
3 of 3 insights came through
VillarrealMatch statsEspanyol
Premier League · Saturday, October 31
Rogers and Palmer lift Chelsea past Manchester United
Chelsea were the sharper side at Stamford Bridge on Saturday 31 October, beating Manchester United 2-0. Morgan Rogers scored in the 50th minute and Cole Palmer converted a penalty in the 64th. The numbers back the result: expected goals of 2.71 to 1.19, 18 shots to 12 and nine on target to five, with 59% of the ball. Chelsea are fourth on 16 points from nine games, in the Champions League places. Manchester United are 17th on 7 points, and the gap to the bottom three is narrowing.
Morgan Rogers 50', Cole Palmer 64' (pen)
How our model read it
No settled insights for this match.
ChelseaMatch statsManchester United
La Liga · Saturday, October 31
Atletico win at Levante despite being outshot 20 to 11
Levante had the better numbers and no points to show for it. They took 20 shots to Atletico Madrid's 11, with expected goals of 1.33 to 0.63, yet Atletico won 0-2 on Saturday 31 October. Alejandro Grimaldo scored in the 36th minute and Giuliano Simeone Baldini in the 62nd, and Atletico had five shots on target to Levante's four. Atletico are second on 28 points from 11 games. Levante stay 18th on 10 points. None of our model's three leans towards Levante came through, the strongest of them at 53%.
Alejandro Grimaldo 36', Giuliano Simeone Baldini 62'
How our model read it
- Levante (draw void)Model 28%Missed
- Levante +1Model 53%Missed
- Levante or drawModel 42%Missed
0 of 3 insights came through
LevanteMatch statsAtletico Madrid
Premier League · Saturday, October 31
Adli's stoppage-time goal seals Bournemouth win over Leeds
Bournemouth beat Leeds 2-0 at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday 31 October. Francisco Evanilson scored in the 31st minute, and Amine Adli added a second in the fourth minute of stoppage time. Leeds had 56% of the possession, but Bournemouth were more precise, with five shots on target to one and expected goals of 1.28 to 0.69. Shots were close, 11 to 10. The win takes Bournemouth to seventh on 12 points from nine games, one place and one point behind Leeds in tenth on 11.
Francisco Evanilson 31', Amine Adli 90+4'
How our model read it
No settled insights for this match.
BournemouthMatch statsLeeds
Premier League · Saturday, October 31
Brentford beat Forest after an own goal and a lone finish
Brentford won 2-0 at the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday 31 October, though the numbers favoured Nottingham Forest. Nikola Milenković put through his own net in the 30th minute and Igor Thiago added a second in the 76th. Forest had 58% of the ball, 15 shots to seven and expected goals of 0.87 to 0.51, but each side managed only one shot on target. Brentford are sixth on 14 points from nine games. Forest stay 19th on 6 points, in the relegation places.
Nikola Milenković 30' (og), Igor Thiago 76'
How our model read it
No settled insights for this match.
BrentfordMatch statsNottingham Forest
Premier League · Saturday, October 31
Coventry take control early and beat Sunderland 3-1
Coventry beat Sunderland 3-1 on Saturday 31 October, with all three goals coming before the hour. Tatsuhiro Sakamoto scored in the 17th minute, Taiwo Awoniyi in the 37th and Jack Rudoni in the 52nd. Enzo Le Fée pulled one back from the penalty spot in the 67th. Sunderland had 57% of the ball, 17 shots to 12 and expected goals of 1.72 to 0.79, but Coventry were more clinical. Coventry are 15th on 9 points. Sunderland are 20th on 5. Our model's lean towards Coventry or a draw, at 62%, came through, as did its 50% lean towards Coventry.
Tatsuhiro Sakamoto 17', Taiwo Awoniyi 37', Jack Rudoni 52'Enzo Le Fée 67' (pen)
How our model read it
- Coventry (draw void)Model 50%Came through
- Coventry or drawModel 62%Came through
2 of 2 insights came through
CoventryMatch statsSunderland
Premier League · Saturday, October 31
Ipswich pull Hull back in a 2-2 draw
Hull City and Ipswich shared four goals at the MKM Stadium on Saturday 31 October. Florentino Luís put Ipswich ahead in the 22nd minute. Tim Iroegbunam equalised in the 58th and Oliver McBurnie put Hull in front in the 68th, before Julio Enciso levelled in the 74th. Ipswich had 62% possession, 15 shots to nine and expected goals of 1.08 to 0.76. Both sides finish on 11 points from nine games, Hull ninth and Ipswich 13th. Our model's two leans towards Hull City, at 55% and 53%, were voided by the draw.
Tim Iroegbunam 58', Oliver McBurnie 68'Florentino Luís 22', Julio Enciso 74'
How our model read it
No settled insights for this match.
Hull CityMatch statsIpswich
Premier League · Saturday, October 31
Manchester City lose to Brighton despite 21 shots
Manchester City lost 0-1 at the Etihad on Saturday 31 October, undone by an early goal from Yasin Ayari in the 11th minute. City had 62% of the ball, 21 shots to seven and expected goals of 1.96 to 1.02, but Brighton survived and kept three efforts on target to City's six. City remain second on 21 points from nine games, while Brighton are third on 19, both in the Champions League places. Our model's 33% lean towards Brighton, with the draw voided, came through.
Yasin Ayari 11'
How our model read it
- Brighton (draw void)Model 33%Came through
1 of 1 insights came through
Manchester CityMatch statsBrighton
La Liga · Saturday, October 31
De Frutos double powers Rayo past Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano beat Celta Vigo 3-0 on Saturday 31 October. Jorge De Frutos scored in the 36th and 55th minutes and Unai López added a third in the 73rd. The shot-on-target count tells the story: eight for Rayo, none for Celta. Celta actually had the higher expected goals, 1.26 to 1.13, but Rayo took 14 shots to 11 and made theirs count. Rayo are 11th on 12 points from 10 games, one place below Celta, who are tenth on 12 from 11. Our model's 48% lean towards Celta Vigo, with the draw voided, missed.
Jorge De Frutos 36', Jorge De Frutos 55', Unai López 73'
How our model read it
- Celta Vigo (draw void)Model 48%Missed
0 of 1 insights came through
Rayo VallecanoMatch statsCelta Vigo
Premier League · Saturday, October 31
Tottenham beat Palace 2-0 after 34 shots and 19 corners
Tottenham's 2-0 win over Crystal Palace on Saturday 31 October was one-sided. Archie Gray scored in the 25th minute and Jan Paul van Hecke in the 73rd. Spurs had 79% possession, 34 shots to two, 19 corners to none and expected goals of 3.34 to 0.21, with nine of those shots on target. Only two goals followed, so the margin flattered Palace. Tottenham are eighth on 12 points from nine games. Palace are 18th on 7, in the relegation places.
Archie Gray 25', Jan Paul van Hecke 73'
How our model read it
No settled insights for this match.
TottenhamMatch statsCrystal Palace
La Liga · Saturday, October 31
Betis edge Malaga as Bartra and Fornals strike before the break
Real Betis beat Malaga 2-1 at La Cartuja on Saturday 31 October. Marc Bartra scored in the 38th minute and Pablo Fornals added a second in first-half stoppage time. Adrian Nino pulled one back in the 68th. Betis had 59% of the ball, 23 shots to ten and expected goals of 1.45 to 1.21. The win keeps them fourth on 23 points from 11 games, in the Champions League places. Malaga remain 20th on 5 points. Our model's 52% lean towards Malaga with a +1.5 handicap came through.
Marc Bartra 38', Pablo Fornals 45+2'Adrian Nino 68'
How our model read it
- Malaga +1.5Model 52%Came through
1 of 1 insights came through
Real BetisMatch statsMalaga
Premier League · Saturday, October 31
Villa and Fulham split the points in a 1-1 draw
Aston Villa and Fulham drew 1-1 at Villa Park on Saturday 31 October. Nicolas Jackson scored in the 39th minute, and Zion Suzuki's own goal in the 64th levelled it for Fulham. Fulham had 55% of the ball, five shots on target to three and expected goals of 2.23 to 1.75, so they will feel they deserved a point. Villa took more shots, 16 to 14. Villa are ninth on 12 points from nine games, and Fulham 15th on 9. Our scoreline prediction of 1-1 was spot on.
Nicolas Jackson 39'Zion Suzuki 64' (og)
How our model read it
No settled insights for this match.
Predicted score 1–1 – spot on
Aston VillaMatch statsFulham
La Liga · Saturday, October 31
Barcelona rout Alaves with a six-goal show at Camp Nou
Barcelona beat Alaves 6-1 on Saturday 31 October. Raphael Dias Belloli scored in the 8th and 41st minutes and Fermín López in the 23rd. Lamine Yamal added two, one in first-half stoppage time and one in the 64th, and Anthony Gordon made it six in the 81st. Mariano Díaz replied in the 84th. Barcelona had 77% of the ball and expected goals of 3.24 to 0.64. They lead La Liga on 30 points from 11 games, with Alaves tenth on 12. Both of our model's leans towards Alaves missed, the stronger at 60%.
Raphael Dias Belloli 8', Fermín López 23', Raphael Dias Belloli 41', Lamine Yamal 45+1', Lamine Yamal 64', Anthony Gordon 81'Mariano Díaz 84'
How our model read it
- Alaves +2.75Model 60%Missed
- Draw or AlavesModel 18%Missed
0 of 2 insights came through
BarcelonaMatch statsAlaves
La Liga · Sunday, November 1
Getafe turn it round late to beat Sevilla
Sevilla led through Kike Salas in the 19th minute and lost 3-1 at Getafe on Sunday 1 November. Enes Ünal equalised in the 68th, Martin Satriano put Getafe ahead in the 73rd and Orel Mangala sealed it in the fourth minute of stoppage time. Sevilla had 53% of the ball and 12 shots to 11, but Getafe's expected goals were higher, 1.62 to 0.74. The defeat follows Sevilla's win on Monday. They stay sixth on 17 points from 11 games, and Getafe climb to 12th on 12.
Enes Ünal 68', Martin Satriano 73', Orel Mangala 90+4'Kike Salas 19'
How our model read it
No settled insights for this match.
GetafeMatch statsSevilla
La Liga · Sunday, November 1
Mbappé, Bellingham and Diomande give Real Madrid a quick lead
Real Madrid had the game won by half-time at El Sardinero on Sunday 1 November, beating Racing Santander 3-0. Kylian Mbappé converted a penalty in the 11th minute, Jude Bellingham scored in the 21st and Yan Diomande in the 36th. Madrid had 22 shots to ten, seven on target to one, and expected goals of 3.5 to 1.23. They are third on 27 points from 11 games. Racing are 16th on 11. None of our model's three leans towards Racing came through, the strongest at 58%.
Kylian Mbappé 11' (pen), Jude Bellingham 21', Yan Diomande 36'
How our model read it
- Racing Santander +2Model 58%Missed
- Racing Santander or drawModel 27%Missed
- Racing Santander (draw void)Model 16%Missed
0 of 3 insights came through
Racing SantanderMatch statsReal Madrid
Premier League · Sunday, November 1
Havertz decides it as Arsenal win at Anfield
Arsenal won 0-1 at Anfield on Sunday 1 November thanks to Kai Havertz's goal in the 16th minute. Liverpool had 56% of the ball, 17 shots to ten and expected goals of 1.23 to 1.02, yet not one of their efforts was on target, against three from Arsenal. That was the difference. Arsenal lead the Premier League on 24 points from nine games. Liverpool are fifth on 15, in the Europa League places.
Kai Havertz 16'
How our model read it
No settled insights for this match.
LiverpoolMatch statsArsenal
La Liga · Sunday, November 1
Sadiq's late goal lifts Valencia at Elche
Valencia won 0-1 at Elche on Sunday 1 November with Umar Sadiq's goal in the 69th minute. Elche had 69% of the ball, 16 shots to five and expected goals of 1.33 to 0.96, but each side put three shots on target and only Valencia found the net. Valencia are 19th on 9 points from 11 games, still in the relegation places but now one point behind Elche. Elche are 17th on 10, having failed to turn their control into goals.
Umar Sadiq 69'
How our model read it
No settled insights for this match.
ElcheMatch statsValencia
La Liga · Sunday, November 1
Athletic edge Real Sociedad with a penalty before half-time
Athletic Club beat Real Sociedad 2-1 at San Mamés on Sunday 1 November. Iñaki Williams scored in the 14th minute and Luka Sučić equalised in the 30th. Alex Berenguer then converted a penalty in first-half stoppage time. Sociedad had 62% of the ball and took 14 shots to 13, with five on target to three, but Athletic's expected goals were higher, 2.97 to 1.42. Athletic are seventh on 15 points from ten games. Sociedad are fifth on 19 from 11, in the Europa League places.
Iñaki Williams 14', Alex Berenguer 45+2' (pen)Luka Sučić 30'
How our model read it
No settled insights for this match.
Athletic ClubMatch statsReal Sociedad
The next round brings a different test for Arsenal, who are now top of the Premier League table, and for Manchester City, who have to respond to a home defeat. Sevilla will want to answer the loss at Getafe, and the bottom of the Premier League is still tight.
In La Liga, Barcelona lead on 30 points, Atletico Madrid have 28 and Real Madrid 27, so the top three remain closely matched. Our model will keep reading every match before kick-off.
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