Toulouse vs Estac Troyes prediction, team news and preview

Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: what the match decides

Toulouse host Estac Troyes in round 8 of Ligue 1 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stadium Municipal. The hosts sit 11th with 9 points from 7 games, five behind leader Lyon on 14. Troyes are 17th of 18 with 4 points and occupy a relegation place.

The main question is whether Troyes can stop a slide that has produced five defeats in their last five league outings. On the numbers, Toulouse are the clear favourites. Their league record of two wins, three draws and two defeats is modest, but their goal difference of +1 compares with Troyes on -11.

Toulouse and Troyes recent form

Toulouse's last five matches, friendly included, read DWLDW: two wins, two draws and one defeat. They scored 12 and conceded 9, which is 2.4 for and 1.8 against per game. They kept one clean sheet, scored in every game, and all five matches had more than 2.5 goals. In their two home games in that run they won 3-2 against Le Havre and lost 2-3 to PAU in a friendly, scoring and conceding 2.5 per game.

Troyes are in far worse shape. Their last five, again including a friendly, read LLDLL: no wins, one draw and four defeats, with 3 goals scored and 11 conceded. That is 0.6 scored and 2.2 conceded per game, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal.

Away from home, Troyes have played three of those matches, drawing one and losing two. They scored 2 and conceded 6, and failed to score twice. Their league tally of 5 goals in 7 games is the sharpest sign of their attacking problems.

Toulouse vs Troyes team news

Toulouse have two doubts: M. Niflore with an injury and S. Oppong with a calf injury. Neither is ruled out in our data, so both could be available.

Troyes have the longer list. Y. Kone and A. Ouzenadji are out with knee injuries, and Y. Titi is out with a leg injury. I. Boura is doubtful with a hip injury. Three confirmed absences for a side already leaking goals is a concern.

Line-ups have not been published yet. They are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, and we will update the picture once they are known.

Storylines: a mid-table side against a team in freefall

For Toulouse, this is a chance to climb away from mid-table. They have drawn three of seven league games and recently drew 2-2 at Lorient and Monaco before winning 3-0 at Le Mans. That result shows they can score freely, although the 1.8 goals conceded per game suggests they are not watertight.

For Troyes, the table is already becoming urgent. They have lost to Lille 0-2, Angers 0-2, Marseille 0-2 and Lens 1-3 in Ligue 1, and drew 2-2 at Dijon in a friendly. A fifth league defeat in a row would leave them with 4 points and little sign of improvement.

Where Toulouse vs Troyes will be decided

The central contrast is Toulouse's attack against Troyes' defence. The hosts have scored at least twice in most recent matches, while Troyes concede 2.2 per game. If Toulouse score first, the visitors will need to chase a game with an attack that has averaged 0.6 goals.

Toulouse's own defence is the one route back for Troyes. The hosts conceded in four of their last five, and two of those games were 2-2 draws. Troyes need an early goal and a settled shape, but injuries limit their options. The tempo is likely to be set by Toulouse, with Troyes counting on transitions.

Toulouse vs Troyes head-to-head

The six meetings in our data favour Toulouse. They won four, drew two and Troyes won none. The games averaged 3 goals each, with three of the six producing more than 2.5 goals and three seeing both teams score.

The most recent was a 4-1 Toulouse win in Ligue 1 on 1 February 2023, after a 3-0 away win in August 2022. A 6-1 Toulouse win in a July 2022 friendly is also in the list, though it carries less weight. The two Ligue 2 meetings were a 1-1 draw and a 0-0 draw. The last fixture in Toulouse was a 4-1 win, but these meetings are several years old.

Toulouse vs Estac Troyes prediction

Our lean is a Toulouse win. They score freely, are at home, and face a side with five straight defeats, 11 goals conceded in its last five and a growing injury list. A draw is the main alternative if Troyes dig in and Toulouse's defensive lapses let them score.

On goals, the lean is for Toulouse to score two or more. The total is less clear: Toulouse's games have all gone over 2.5 recently, but Troyes have scored in only two of their last five. A 2-0 or 3-1 home win fits the data better than a high-scoring draw.

Late fitness news on Niflore, Oppong and Boura, and the published line-ups, could shift this read. MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Toulouse vs Estac Troyes

Official broadcasters differ by country. Ligue 1+ shows the match in France, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Italy. beIN Sports is listed in the United States, Canada and much of the Middle East and North Africa.

DAZN is listed in Spain, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Switzerland and Japan. Viaplay covers the Netherlands and the Nordic countries, ESPN covers much of South America, SuperSport covers much of Africa and Star Sports covers India. Where you are not listed, check the Ligue 1 broadcast partner in your country and its official app.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

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