Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina prediction, team news and preview

Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: what the match decides

Sweden against Bosnia & Herzegovina is a League B Group D fixture in the UEFA Nations League (round 5), played at Strawberry Arena on Saturday 14 November 2026. The two sides top the four-team group, and the result will shape who finishes in the promotion place.

Sweden lead on 10 points from four games (three wins, one draw, no defeats). Bosnia & Herzegovina are second on 8 points, also unbeaten, and currently sit in the promotion play-off zone. A home win would stretch the gap to five points, while a Bosnian win would move them level on points with Sweden's current total of 10 and would lift them to 11 if the margin held.

Sweden and Bosnia & Herzegovina recent form

Sweden's last five games across competitions read LWWDW: three wins, one draw and one defeat, with 7 goals scored (1.4 per game) and 6 conceded (1.2). They kept one clean sheet and failed to score once, in the 3-0 World Cup loss to France on 30 June. Since then they have won three of four.

Their home form is the stronger part of the picture. Sweden have won both home games, 2-1 against Romania and 3-1 against Poland, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1 per game, and both matches saw both teams score.

Bosnia & Herzegovina's last five read LDWDW, with 6 scored (1.2 per game) and 5 conceded (1.0). They have two clean sheets and have failed to score twice. Away from home they have played three: one win, one draw and one defeat, with 4 goals for and 4 against.

Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina team news

No absences are reported in our data for either side so far, so there are no confirmed injuries or suspensions to factor into this analysis. That can change before the game.

Line-ups have not been published yet. They are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, and we will have a clearer view of each side's shape once they appear.

No absences reported so far.

Storylines: table pressure and unbeaten runs

Sweden have the table in their hands. They are unbeaten in the group, have won three of their four Nations League games and have scored 7 goals with a goal difference of plus four. Having bounced back from the France defeat, the question is whether they can protect that lead at home.

Bosnia & Herzegovina arrive with a goal difference of plus three and a record of two wins and two draws. Their group form of WDWD shows resilience, though they have also drawn a blank in two of their last five. A positive result in Sweden would keep the group live, and a defeat would leave them playing catch-up.

Key battles: Swedish attack against a tight visiting defence

The central contrast is Sweden's home scoring rate of 2.5 per game against a Bosnian side that concedes 1.0 per game overall and has two clean sheets in five. Away from home, though, Bosnia have conceded 1.33 per game, so they are less watertight than the headline figure suggests.

At the other end, Bosnia & Herzegovina score 1.2 per game and 1.33 on the road, while Sweden concede 1.0 per game at home. That points to a contest where one goal could decide the outcome, and where the first goal matters. Only one of Bosnia's last five games went over 2.5 goals, against three of Sweden's five.

Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina head-to-head

Our data holds one meeting: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden in the UEFA Nations League on 2 October 2026. It produced two goals, both teams scored, and it did not go over 2.5 goals.

That makes the head-to-head record no wins for either side and one draw. It is a small sample, but it is also the most recent evidence that these two are closely matched.

Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina prediction

Our lean is a narrow Sweden edge, with the draw a real possibility. Three facts drive it: Sweden's two home wins and 2.5 goals per game at Strawberry Arena, Bosnia's modest away scoring rate of 1.33, and the 1-1 draw between the sides last month.

On goals, we lean towards a moderate total of two or three, as Bosnia's games have been less open than Sweden's. An early Bosnian goal would test Sweden's home record, and confirmed line-ups could change this read. This is a lean, not a certainty. MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

No official broadcasters are listed in our data for this match. Check the UEFA Nations League's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app for live coverage.

Broadcast rights vary by country, so using the official rights holder is the reliable way to watch the match live.

We have not listed this competition's broadcasters yet. Check the competition's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

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