Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction, team news and preview

Sturm Graz vs Celje: what the match decides

Sturm Graz host Celje in matchday 4 of the UEFA Europa League league stage on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Stadion Graz-Liebenau. The match decides whether the Austrian side can move further into the play-off places or whether Celje fall further behind in a 36-team table.

Sturm sit 19th with four points from three games (one win, one draw, one loss) and a goal difference of -2. That position currently falls in the zone marked for the Europa League play-offs, the 1/16-final round. Celje are 29th with one point from three games and a goal difference of -5. Benfica lead the table with nine points.

On the numbers, Sturm are the home side with more points and a stronger home record. Celje arrive in good domestic form, though, so this is not as one-sided as the table suggests.

Sturm Graz and Celje recent form

Sturm Graz have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five (WWDLD). They have scored 12 and conceded 7, which is 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. They kept one clean sheet, scored in every game and both teams scored in four of the five.

At home Sturm are stronger: two wins and a draw from three, with 9 goals scored and 3 conceded (3.0 and 1.0 per game). Those include a 6-1 win over Grazer AK, a 1-0 Europa League win over Marseille and a 2-2 draw with Ried. Away from home they lost 2-3 at Austria Lustenau in the Cup and drew 1-1 at Wolfsberger AC.

Celje are unbeaten in their last five (DDWDW): two wins and three draws, with 9 scored and 3 conceded (1.8 and 0.6 per game). They have three clean sheets and failed to score once, in a 0-0 draw at Maribor. Their three away games brought one win and two draws, with 3 scored and 1 conceded and two clean sheets.

The Europa League tells a different story for Celje. They have drawn one and lost two, scoring 2 and conceding 7, including a 2-2 home draw with Red Bull Salzburg.

Sturm Graz vs Celje team news

Sturm Graz have a long absence list. Ten players are out: N. Geyrhofer and S. Wlodarczyk (both off the roster), D. Khudyakov (inactive), L. Grgic (knee injury), S. Jatta (shoulder injury), O. Kiteishvili (calf injury), F. Rozga and E. Soglo (both muscle injuries), and G. Mamageishvili and N. Weiper (both injury, with no further detail given).

Our data lists no players as doubtful. Several of those absences are not injuries, so the impact depends on how many were regular starters, which the data does not tell us. The list does suggest limited squad depth for a congested week that has already included a cup tie and a league game.

No absences are reported for Celje in our data so far. That does not rule out late problems. Line-ups have not been published yet and are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.

Storylines for Sturm Graz and Celje

For Sturm, the main story is consolidating a play-off place after a mixed start of one win, one draw and one loss. They have scored only one goal in three league-stage games, yet they have scored 9 in three recent home games across all competitions. They also arrive from a Cup exit at Austria Lustenau and a draw at Wolfsberger AC.

For Celje, the story is the contrast between domestic and European form. They have not lost in five games overall, including a 4-0 home win over Nafta on 1 November. In the league stage, though, one point from three games and a goal difference of -5 leave them in the lower part of the table.

The match can change both sides' outlook. A Sturm win would strengthen their position near the play-off places. A Celje result would be a significant boost to a campaign that needs points.

Where Sturm Graz vs Celje will be decided

The main contrast is Sturm's home attack against Celje's recent defensive record. Sturm average 3.0 goals in home games, while Celje concede 0.33 per game on their recent travels. Something has to give, though Celje's low-conceding games were mostly in the Slovenian league and cup.

Celje's European defending is the best argument for Sturm. They have conceded 7 in three league-stage matches, which is a far higher rate than their domestic figures. A faster tempo and early pressure could expose that gap.

Sturm's own defence is the other pressure point. They have conceded 7 in their last five and have kept one clean sheet, with both teams scoring in four of those games. If Celje are organised, they can take chances on the break, particularly with so many Sturm absentees.

Sturm Graz vs Celje head-to-head

No previous meetings between Sturm Graz and Celje appear in our data, so there is no head-to-head record, goals-per-game average or notable scoreline to cite.

Without that history, current form and home advantage carry more weight in the analysis.

Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction

Our lean is a narrow Sturm Graz win. Three facts drive it: their 3.0 goals per game at home, Celje's 7 goals conceded in three Europa League games, and the extra points and league position Sturm hold. Celje's unbeaten five-game run and their 0.6 goals conceded per game across all competitions keep this from being a comfortable pick.

On goals, we lean towards a match with two or three goals in total. Sturm scored over 2.5 in two of three home games, while Celje's matches have gone over 2.5 in two of five. Both teams to score is plausible given Sturm's record, but Celje's clean sheets cap the upside.

The main uncertainty is Sturm's ten absentees and unconfirmed line-ups. If key starters are missing, Celje's compact approach could earn a draw. MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Sturm Graz vs Celje

No official broadcasters are listed in our data for this match. Check the UEFA Europa League's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app for live coverage.

The match is played on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Stadion Graz-Liebenau, and the page shows kick-off in your local time.

We have not listed this competition's broadcasters yet. Check the competition's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

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