Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction, team news and preview

Sevilla vs Osasuna preview: what the match decides

Sevilla host Osasuna at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán on Monday 26 October 2026, in round 10 of La Liga. The short answer to the question most readers have: our lean is a narrow home edge in a match that should produce goals, but the evidence on both sides is thin and the margin for error is wide.

Sevilla sit sixth with 14 points from nine games (four wins, two draws, three defeats) and a goal difference of -2. In our data that position falls in the Conference League qualification zone. Osasuna are 11th with 11 points from nine (three wins, two draws, four defeats) and a goal difference of -8. Three points and five places separate the sides, while leaders Barcelona are on 27 points, 13 clear of Sevilla.

What the match decides is straightforward. A Sevilla win would take them to 17 points and open a six-point gap over Osasuna. An Osasuna win would lift them to 14 points, level with their hosts, and would drag a side currently in a European place back into the pack. A draw leaves the gap at three and keeps both sides looking over their shoulders.

Sevilla and Osasuna recent form in numbers

Sevilla's last five matches in our data read win, loss, loss, draw, loss: a 1-0 win at Deportivo La Coruña, a 1-3 home defeat to Barcelona, a 1-3 home loss to Aston Villa in a friendly, a 3-3 draw at Levante and a 1-4 defeat at Real Madrid. That is one win, one draw and three defeats, with seven goals scored (1.4 per game) and 13 conceded (2.6 per game). They kept one clean sheet, scored in every game, and both teams found the net in four of the five, with over 2.5 goals in four as well. The league table lists their form as LDLWW, which includes two wins.

The home split is the worrying part for Sevilla. They played two home games in that run and lost both, scoring two and conceding six, an average of three goals against per game. One of those was a friendly, so treat it as a trend rather than a verdict.

Osasuna's last five run loss, loss, draw, loss, win: 0-2 at home to Espanyol, 0-4 at Atletico Madrid, 1-1 at home to Rayo Vallecano, a 2-5 defeat away on 11 October and a 2-0 home win over Racing Santander on 18 October. That is also one win, one draw and three defeats, with five goals scored (1.0 per game) and 12 conceded (2.4 per game). They kept one clean sheet, failed to score twice, and both teams scored in only two of the five.

On the road the numbers are stark. Osasuna have lost both away games in the run, scoring two and conceding nine, which works out at 4.5 goals against per away game. Two matches is a small sample, but it is the only away evidence we have.

Sevilla vs Osasuna team news

Sevilla have four players ruled out in our data. J. Guridi and Marcao are out with muscle injuries, M. Sierra is out with a shoulder injury and I. Munoz is out with an injury for which no detail is given. L. Stassin is listed as doubtful with an injury, so his availability is likely to come down to the final training sessions.

Osasuna also have four players out and none listed as doubtful. A. Bonel is out with a groin injury, A. Oroz with a hamstring injury, and R. Del Castillo and J. Herrando with muscle injuries. With four absentees each, neither side holds a clear numerical advantage on the treatment table.

Our data does not give positions, minutes played or starting records for these players, so we will not guess how much each absence changes the shape of either team. What it does tell you is that both coaches are working with a thinner pool than they would like, in a fixture where both defences have been leaking goals.

No line-ups are published yet. They are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, and any late change to Stassin's status or a surprise return from the absentee lists would be the main thing to watch.

Sevilla and Osasuna storylines to follow

For Sevilla the headline is the gap between table position and underlying numbers. They are sixth, inside the Conference League qualification zone, yet they have scored 14 and conceded 16 in nine games, an average of 1.56 scored and 1.78 conceded. Recent matches have been open and expensive: 1-3 against Barcelona, 3-3 at Levante and 1-4 at Real Madrid. Their only win in the last five came away at Deportivo La Coruña by 1-0.

Osasuna's storyline is about stability. They are 11th with the worst goal difference of the two sides, having scored 10 and conceded 18 in nine games, which is 1.11 scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their 2-0 home win over Racing Santander on 18 October is the one clean sheet and the one victory in the last five, and it arrived straight after a 2-5 defeat away.

There is also a recent head-to-head angle: Osasuna won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 26 April 2026. A repeat would give them back-to-back wins over Sevilla for the first time in the six meetings in our data and complete the three-point swing that lifts them level on points.

The match matters most to Sevilla's momentum. A home win would soften a run in which they have lost heavily to the two biggest names they faced, while a defeat would deepen concerns about their home record.

Where Sevilla vs Osasuna could be decided

The first contest is Sevilla's attack against Osasuna's away defence. Sevilla have scored in all five of their recent games at 1.4 per game, while Osasuna have conceded 4.5 per game in their two away matches. If even part of that pattern holds, Sevilla should create chances.

The mirror image favours Osasuna more than their table position suggests. Sevilla have conceded three goals per game in their two home matches, and 2.6 per game across the last five. Osasuna's attack is modest at 1.0 per game, and they failed to score in two of five, so they need to turn a small number of chances into goals rather than rely on volume.

Tempo and game state are the third factor. Sevilla's recent games have been high-scoring, with over 2.5 goals in four of five and both teams scoring in four. Osasuna's games have been more mixed, with over 2.5 in two of five. The head-to-head history leans the other way, with only one of six meetings going over 2.5 goals. Whichever side scores first may decide whether the game follows the recent open pattern or the cagier history.

Our data contains no set-piece or expected-goals figures, so we will not claim an edge from dead-ball situations. Both teams also have four players out, which could add to the disorganisation if early goals arrive.

Sevilla vs Osasuna head-to-head record

The six meetings in our data, all in La Liga and dating back to September 2023, are fairly even. Counting the results listed, Osasuna have won two, Sevilla one and three have been drawn. Our summary totals disagree with the individual results, so we have used the listed scores.

The scores were 0-0 at Osasuna on 23 September 2023, 1-1 at Sevilla on 28 January 2024, 1-1 at Sevilla on 2 December 2024, 1-0 to Osasuna at home on 24 April 2025, 1-0 to Sevilla at home on 8 November 2025, and 2-1 to Osasuna at home on 26 April 2026.

Those meetings produced nine goals, or 1.5 per game. Both teams scored in three of the six, and only one went over 2.5 goals. These have mostly been tight, low-scoring contests.

At Sevilla specifically, the three meetings in our data brought one Sevilla win and two draws, with Osasuna failing to win in Seville in any of them. That is a modest point in the home side's favour, though the current form of both teams looks quite different from the sides that produced those scores.

Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction

Our lean is a narrow Sevilla win, with a draw the main alternative and an Osasuna victory the least likely of the three outcomes. The case rests on three facts: Sevilla are higher in the table with a better goal difference, Osasuna have conceded 4.5 goals per game in their two away matches, and both sides have been relatively even over the last five.

On goals, the lean is towards a match with at least two or three goals and both teams scoring. Sevilla have seen over 2.5 goals in four of five and both teams scoring in four of five, and their home matches have been open. The counterweight is the head-to-head history, which has produced only 1.5 goals per game, and Osasuna's own lack of attacking output at 1.0 per game.

A scoreline in the region of 2-1 to Sevilla fits the evidence best, but this is a lean, not a certainty. Sevilla's home defence has been poor enough that Osasuna can score, and a single early goal could change the shape of the game. The late team news is the other variable: Stassin's status for Sevilla and the line-ups on both sides could shift the picture.

MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Sevilla vs Osasuna

The match is on Monday 26 October 2026. The page shows kick-off in your own time zone, and the official broadcasters listed in our data are below by country.

In Spain, Movistar Plus+ and DAZN are the listed broadcasters. In the United Kingdom and Ireland, the listed broadcasters are Disney+ and Premier Sports. In the United States, it is ESPN, and in Canada TSN and RDS. In Australia, beIN Sports is listed.

Elsewhere in Europe, DAZN is listed in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Portugal and Belgium, DAZN and Disney+ in France, and DAZN and Mediaset in Italy. Ziggo Sport covers the Netherlands, while TV 2 Sport and Viaplay are listed in Norway. In Latin America, ESPN and DSports are listed in Argentina, Chile, Colombia and several neighbouring countries, Sky Sports and Canal 5 in Mexico, and CazéTV and SportyNet in Brazil.

In India the listed broadcaster is FanCode, and in Nigeria and South Africa you will find SuperSport, StarTimes, DAZN and SportyTV. beIN Sports is listed across much of the Middle East and North Africa, including the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. If your country is not covered here, check La Liga's official broadcast partner and its official app, and confirm the schedule on the day.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

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