San Marino vs Belarus prediction, team news and preview

San Marino vs Belarus: what the match decides

San Marino host Belarus in the fifth round of League C Group A in the UEFA Nations League. The game is played on Thursday 12 November 2026 at San Marino Stadium. Belarus sit second on 7 points, inside the promotion play-off zone, while San Marino are fourth with no points from four games.

The group is led by Albania on 9 points, so Belarus have a live reason to collect all three here and keep pressure on the top spot. For San Marino the match is about ending a run of defeats and finding goals. Our read is that Belarus are clear favourites, and the question is mainly the margin.

San Marino and Belarus recent form

San Marino have lost all five of their latest games, scoring 2 and conceding 18, which is 0.4 scored and 3.6 conceded per game. They have no clean sheets, failed to score in three of the five, and all five games produced more than 2.5 goals. At home they have lost both matches, 0-7 to Finland and 0-3 to Albania, scoring none and conceding 10, an average of 5 per game.

Belarus have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last five, scoring 7 and conceding 4. That works out at 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, with three clean sheets. They beat San Marino 4-0 on 3 October and Finland 1-0 on 6 October.

Away from home Belarus have been less convincing in attack. They lost 0-2 at Albania and drew 0-0 at Finland, scoring nothing in either, though they conceded only twice in those two games.

San Marino vs Belarus team news

No absences are reported in our data for either side so far, so we cannot name any injured or suspended players. That is a gap in the information rather than a confirmation that both squads are at full strength.

Line-ups are not yet published. They are normally confirmed about an hour before kick-off, and we will judge the starting elevens against the form figures once they appear.

No absences reported so far.

Storylines for San Marino and Belarus

For San Marino the story is the scale of the difficulty so far. Four Nations League games have brought four defeats, 1 goal scored and 16 conceded, a goal difference of -15. The only goals in that run came in the 1-2 defeat at Albania, and a first goal at home in this campaign would be a small marker of progress.

Belarus come in with the more stable profile. A 0-2 loss at Albania was followed by a goalless draw at Finland, then 4-0 and 1-0 wins, giving them 7 points from 4 games with 5 scored and 2 conceded. A win would strengthen their play-off position and keep them in touch with Albania on 9 points.

Where San Marino vs Belarus will be decided

The main contest is Belarus's finishing against a defence that has conceded 3.6 goals per game. San Marino have faced a heavy volume of chances at home, and Belarus only need to be efficient to build an early lead. Once behind, San Marino have shown little ability to change the game, scoring in only two of their last five.

The counter-point is Belarus's away attack, which has not scored in either of its last two road games. If San Marino can stay organised and avoid an early goal, the match may be tighter than the season numbers suggest. Belarus's low concession rate of 0.8 per game also means San Marino face a hard task to score at all.

San Marino vs Belarus head-to-head

The two sides have met three times, all in the UEFA Nations League, and Belarus have won every one. The scores were 5-0 in Belarus in September 2018, 2-0 in San Marino in November 2018 and 4-0 in Belarus on 3 October 2026.

Those games averaged 3.67 goals, with Belarus scoring 11 and conceding none. Both teams have never scored in the same meeting, and two of the three games went over 2.5 goals.

San Marino vs Belarus prediction

Our lean is a Belarus win. The model edge rests on three facts: San Marino have lost five in a row and conceded 3.6 per game, Belarus have kept three clean sheets in five, and Belarus have won all three meetings without conceding. A clean sheet for Belarus looks the likeliest single outcome.

On goals, the lean is towards two or three for Belarus, though this is less certain than the result. San Marino's matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, but Belarus have scored none in two away games, and a cautious start could keep the total down. An early Belarus goal is the main thing that would push this towards a heavier score.

MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch San Marino vs Belarus

No official broadcasters are listed in our data for this match. To watch live, check the UEFA Nations League's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app.

Coverage varies by territory, so confirm the schedule with your local rights holder before the match on Thursday 12 November 2026.

We have not listed this competition's broadcasters yet. Check the competition's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

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