Newcastle vs Everton prediction, team news and preview

Newcastle vs Everton: what the match decides

Newcastle host Everton in round 9 of the Premier League on Monday 2 November 2026 at St James' Park. Newcastle sit 11th with 11 points from eight games (three wins, two draws, three defeats). Everton are 13th with 10 points (two wins, four draws, two defeats). One point and two places separate them, so the match decides which of two mid-table sides gains some daylight in a congested middle.

Neither side is close to the summit. Manchester City lead with 21 points, which is 10 clear of Newcastle and 11 clear of Everton. The goal columns are modest too: Newcastle have scored 12 and conceded 14 (goal difference -2), while Everton have scored 8 and conceded 9 (-1). Both are averaging a little over a point per game, at 1.38 for Newcastle and 1.25 for Everton.

The main question is who has the edge, and our analysis says it is a narrow call. Newcastle have home advantage and the slightly stronger attack across the season. Everton have won the last three meetings between these clubs, the most recent being a 3-1 League Cup victory on 29 October, just four days before this game. The sections below set out the form, the injury list, the head-to-head record and our lean.

Newcastle and Everton recent form

Newcastle's last five matches read W L L W L: two wins and three defeats, with six goals scored and nine conceded (1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded per game). They kept one clean sheet, failed to score once, and both teams scored in three of the five. The run began with a 2-1 home win over Hull City on 19 September and a 4-1 defeat at Coventry on 12 October. It continued with a 1-0 home loss to Aston Villa, a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace and a 3-1 League Cup defeat at Everton.

Everton's last five read W D L L W: two wins, one draw and two defeats, with six scored and seven conceded (1.2 and 1.4 per game). They also kept one clean sheet, but failed to score twice. They beat Ipswich 1-0 at home, drew 2-2 at Hull City, lost 2-0 at home to Chelsea and 2-0 at Arsenal, then beat Newcastle 3-1 in the League Cup. Four of their eight league games this season have ended level.

The venue splits matter. In the home games within Newcastle's last five, they won one and lost one, scoring two and conceding two. Everton's two away games in their last five brought one draw and one defeat, with two goals scored and four conceded, so they are shipping two per game on the road in that sample. Both samples are small, but they point to a Newcastle side that is more solid at home than its overall defensive numbers suggest.

Newcastle vs Everton team news

Newcastle have the longer list. E. Jaouen (muscle injury) and V. Livramento (knee injury) are ruled out. M. Fernandez-Pardo (illness), L. Miley (muscle injury) and W. Osula (ankle injury) are doubtful. That is five names in total, and three of them could yet be available, so the final squad depends on late fitness checks.

Everton have one reported doubt: J. Grealish is listed as doubtful with illness. No other Everton absences are reported in our data, so Everton look closer to a settled squad than their opponents. An illness doubt can clear quickly, but it is worth checking again nearer kick-off.

Line-ups have not been published yet. They are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, and the shape of each team, especially how Newcastle cover their doubtful players, will be clearer then. Our data does not give positions for the players above, so treat any assumption about tactical impact with caution until the teams are named.

Storylines: Newcastle and Everton in mid-table

For Newcastle, the story is inconsistency. They have won three and lost three of eight league games, and the recent pattern of win, loss, loss, win, loss shows how hard it has been to string results together. Their 2-0 win at Crystal Palace on 25 October was a clean-sheet response to a heavy 4-1 defeat at Coventry, but the cup loss at Everton four days later undid some of that progress. A home win here would lift them above Everton and add to the 11 points they already have.

For Everton, the story is resilience without much goalscoring. They have scored only eight in eight league games, an average of one per game, and drawn four times. They lost to Chelsea and Arsenal in successive league games, then beat Newcastle 3-1 in the League Cup. That result is the freshest piece of evidence that they can be effective against this opponent.

The match can change the shape of the table. A Newcastle win would open a four-point gap over Everton, while an Everton win would take them to 13 points and above Newcastle's 11. A draw would leave the gap at one point. In a division where City already have 21 points, the real prize is stability in the middle of the table.

Key battles: where Newcastle vs Everton will be decided

The first area is Newcastle's defence against Everton's attack. Newcastle have conceded nine in their last five, including four at Coventry, and both teams scored in three of those five. Everton have scored one or fewer in three of their last five and failed to score twice, so they are not prolific, but they got three against Newcastle last time out. If Newcastle's backline is disrupted by absences, that is where the match could swing.

The second is Everton's away resilience against Newcastle's home attack. Everton's two recent away games brought four goals conceded, two per game, so St James' Park is a demanding setting. Newcastle scored only two goals in their last two home games, though, and failed to score in one, so they cannot rely on the venue to create chances for them.

The third is tempo and game state. Over 2.5 goals landed in three of Newcastle's last five and two of Everton's, and in four of the six meetings between the clubs. The first goal will matter: both teams have shown they can lose control of a game once they fall behind, and Newcastle's last meeting with Everton ended 3-1 against them. A cautious opening phase would favour the side that is happy with a draw, which has been Everton's most common result this season.

Newcastle vs Everton head-to-head record

We have six recent meetings, and Everton have the better of them. They won four, Newcastle won one, and one finished goalless. The meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 3.17 per game. Both teams scored in four of the six, and over 2.5 goals came in four.

Everton have won the last three: 3-1 at home in the League Cup on 29 October 2026, 3-1 at Newcastle in a club friendly on 12 August 2026 and 3-2 at Newcastle in the Premier League on 28 February 2026. The friendly carries little competitive weight, but the other two do. Newcastle's one win in the sequence was a 4-1 victory at Everton on 29 November 2025.

The remaining two meetings were low-scoring. Everton won 1-0 at Newcastle on 25 May 2025, and the sides drew 0-0 at Everton on 5 October 2024. In the four Premier League meetings listed, Everton won two, Newcastle won one and one was drawn. Results have swung widely, but the recent pattern of Everton scoring three at Newcastle twice in 2026 deserves respect.

Newcastle vs Everton prediction

Our lean is a tight match with a slight edge to Newcastle. Three facts drive it. Newcastle are at home and have scored 1.5 goals per game this season against Everton's 1.0. Everton's away form in the last five has been a draw and a defeat with four goals conceded. And Everton's own goal output is low, which limits how far they can punish Newcastle's defensive problems.

The counter-argument is real, though. Everton have won the last three meetings and beat Newcastle only four days earlier, so there is no obvious reason for them to be intimidated. Newcastle's last five have brought nine goals conceded, and if they are missing two players with three more in doubt, the model edge is slim. A draw is a live outcome, given Everton have drawn four of eight league games.

On goals, we lean towards a moderately open game rather than a low-scoring one. Both teams scored in three of Newcastle's last five and in four of the six meetings, and over 2.5 goals came in four of those six. Late fitness news on Newcastle's doubtful players and on Grealish is the main thing that could shift this read. MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Newcastle vs Everton

The match is the Premier League round 9 fixture at St James' Park on Monday 2 November 2026. Our data does not list a United Kingdom broadcaster, so check the Premier League's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app for the exact channel.

In the United States, the listed broadcasters are NBC, Telemundo and USA Network. In Canada it is fuboTV, in Australia Stan Sport and in India Star Sports. In Ireland the listed broadcasters are Premier Sports, Sky Sports and TNT Sports.

In Europe, Sky Sport is listed for Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Italy, and Canal+ for France. Spain is covered by DAZN and Movistar Plus+, Portugal by DAZN and LiveModeTV, and the Netherlands by Viaplay and Prime Video. In Latin America, ESPN is listed for countries including Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia, and Warner Bros. Discovery and Fox for Mexico. In the Middle East and North Africa, beIN Sports is listed for countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Morocco. SuperSport is listed for South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and many other African markets. If your country is not mentioned, use the official broadcast partner for the competition there.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

Frequently asked questions