Derby vs Norwich prediction, team news and preview

Derby vs Norwich: what the match decides

Derby host Norwich in Championship Regular Season round 14 on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at Pride Park Stadium. The match decides whether Derby can begin to close the gap to safety or slip further into the Relegation - League One zone, where they currently sit in 23rd.

Derby have won once, drawn four and lost eight of their 13 games, scoring 11 and conceding 25 for a goal difference of minus 14. Norwich are 15th on 15 points from 13 games, with five wins and eight defeats and a goal difference of minus one. Middlesbrough lead the division on 28 points.

Our read is that Norwich are the more likely winners, but the margin depends on whether Derby can defend better than their recent numbers suggest.

Derby and Norwich recent form

Derby's last five league games read D L L D L: no wins, two draws and three defeats, with four goals scored and 11 conceded. That is 0.8 scored and 2.2 conceded per game, with no clean sheets and one blank. Both teams scored in four of those five matches.

Within that run, Derby have played two home games: a 1-1 draw with Wrexham and a 0-1 defeat to Stoke City, scoring once and conceding twice. The heavy damage came away, with 1-4 defeats at QPR and Millwall.

Norwich's last five are L L L W W: two wins and three defeats, with seven scored and seven conceded (1.4 each per game) and no clean sheets. They lost 1-2 at Swansea, 0-1 to Southampton and 0-1 to Portsmouth, then beat Charlton 3-1 away and Watford 3-2 at home.

In their two away games in that spell, Norwich scored four and conceded three, an average of two scored per game.

Derby vs Norwich team news

Derby have eight players listed as out: P. Agyemang (Achilles tendon injury), E. Cashin (inactive), M. Clarke (calf injury), C. Forsyth (knee injury), S. Langas (injury), D. Murkin (hamstring injury), C. Taylor (injury) and L. Travis (ankle injury). That is a long list for a side already struggling to score, and it limits their options for changes.

Norwich have four players out: A. Ahmed (knee injury), P. A. Diallo (injury), G. Forsyth (lacking match fitness) and M. Toure (shoulder injury). P. Mattsson is doubtful with health problems.

No line-ups are published in our data yet. They are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, so check them before drawing firm conclusions.

Storylines for Derby and Norwich

For Derby, the story is a lack of goals and points. One win in 13 and only 11 goals scored is the weakest attacking return in this pairing, and the run of D L L D L shows no sign of a turnaround. Two 1-4 away defeats in the last five also highlight how quickly games can run away from them.

Norwich have lost eight of 13, yet their goal difference of minus one is far healthier than Derby's minus 14. Back-to-back wins over Charlton and Watford follow three straight defeats, so this is a chance to build on that revival.

The table gives the match extra weight: Norwich are 8 points ahead of Derby, and a win would widen that gap, while a Derby victory would be their first at home in this recent run.

Where Derby vs Norwich will be decided

The main contest is Derby's defence against Norwich's attack. Derby concede 2.2 goals per game in their last five, and Norwich have scored three in each of their last two wins. If that rhythm continues, Derby will find it hard to keep the game level.

The other side of the contest is more even. Norwich have conceded 1.4 per game and kept no clean sheet in the last five, so Derby will have chances to score. Their problem is conversion: 0.8 goals per game, and only one goal in their two recent home matches.

Games involving Derby have regularly seen both teams score, four times in five. A scrappy, open game is plausible, but Derby's attacking record means they probably need Norwich to make the errors.

Derby vs Norwich head-to-head

Across the six meetings in our data, Norwich have won three, Derby two and one was drawn. The six games produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 per game. Both teams scored in three of them and two produced three goals or more.

The most recent meeting was a 2-1 Norwich win at Carrow Road on 21 April 2026. Derby won 1-0 at Pride Park on 21 October 2025, and the sides drew 1-1 in Norwich on 8 February 2025.

Norwich also won 3-2 at Pride Park on 28 September 2024. Margins are small throughout: five of the six were decided by a single goal or a draw.

Derby vs Norwich prediction

Our lean is a narrow Norwich win. Three facts drive it: Derby have conceded 11 in their last five, Norwich have scored three in each of their last two wins, and Derby's home attack has produced one goal in two games. The visitors also hold the slight head-to-head edge.

On goals, we lean towards a game with two or three goals, with Norwich likely to score at least once. Derby's low output keeps a high-scoring game from being the main scenario, though their defensive record leaves it open.

A draw is a real possibility given how tight these meetings have been. Eight absences for Derby and the unconfirmed line-ups add uncertainty, and an early goal could change the shape of the match. MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Derby vs Norwich

No official broadcasters are listed in our data for this match. Check the Championship's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app to see where it is shown live.

Use only licensed services, as coverage and availability differ by country.

We have not listed this competition's broadcasters yet. Check the competition's official broadcast partner in your country and its official app.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

Frequently asked questions