Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart prediction, team news and preview

Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart: what the match decides

Bayer Leverkusen host VfB Stuttgart in round 8 of the Bundesliga on Saturday 31 October 2026 at the BayArena. The table points in one direction before a ball is kicked. Leverkusen are fourth on 13 points from seven games, with four wins, one draw and two defeats, a goal difference of +4 (16 scored, 12 conceded) and a place in the Champions League league stage zone. Leader Bayern München have 17 points, so the gap at the top is four.

Stuttgart are 15th with 6 points from seven, having won twice and lost five. They have scored 10 and conceded 13 for a goal difference of -3. That leaves seven points between the sides, and the match decides whether Leverkusen can keep pace with the leaders or whether Stuttgart can begin to climb away from the lower reaches.

The main question is whether Leverkusen's form and home scoring are enough to outweigh a long injury list and a head-to-head record that has not favoured them at the BayArena. Our read is that the home side deserve to be favourites, but not by a margin that makes this comfortable. The sections below set out why.

Leverkusen and Stuttgart recent form

Leverkusen's last five games, across all competitions, read WWWLW: four wins and one defeat, with 13 goals scored and 6 conceded. That is 2.6 scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with two clean sheets and one blank. The wins were 4-0 at Lech Poznan and 2-0 at OFI in the UEFA Europa League, 2-1 against SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga and 5-2 against 1. FC Nürnberg in the DFB Pokal. The one defeat was a 0-3 loss at 1899 Hoffenheim.

The home numbers are the more striking part. In their two most recent home games Leverkusen have won both, scoring 7 and conceding 3, an average of 3.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. Both games saw both teams score and both went over 2.5 goals. They score freely at the BayArena, but they have not kept a clean sheet there in that spell.

Stuttgart's last five run WLDLW: two wins, one draw and two defeats, with 7 scored and 5 conceded. That works out at 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, with two clean sheets and one failure to score. They won 3-0 at Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League and 1-0 at SC Paderborn 07 in the DFB Pokal, drew 1-1 with Atletico Madrid, and lost 0-1 at Hamburger SV and 2-3 at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach in the league.

Their away form is better than their league position suggests. In their last three away games they have won two and lost one, scoring 4 and conceding just 1, an average of 0.33 conceded per game, with two clean sheets and no game in which both sides scored. Their league record of two wins and five defeats from seven is the problem, and it is a domestic one.

Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart team news

Leverkusen have the longer list. Six players are ruled out: L. Bade (head injury), E. Ben Seghir (muscle injury), M. Diaby (hamstring injury), K. Eichhorn (illness), C. Kofane (muscle injury) and M. Terrier (muscle injury). G. Doue is doubtful with a calf injury. That is seven names in total, and muscle problems account for most of them.

A list of that size matters because Leverkusen are playing across the Bundesliga, the Europa League and the DFB Pokal, with a midweek cup tie against Nürnberg only three days before this game. Any rotation will lean on the remaining squad, and Doue's fitness is the one to watch in the days before the match.

Stuttgart have fewer problems. T. Tomas and J. Vagnoman are out, both with muscle injuries. J. Diehl and D. Zagadou are doubtful, also with muscle injuries. If either doubtful player is missing, Stuttgart lose defensive options, which would matter against an attack that has averaged 3.5 goals at home.

No line-ups are published in our data yet. Teams are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, and the status of the doubtful players will be clearer then.

Key storylines for Leverkusen and Stuttgart

For Leverkusen the story is momentum with a caveat. They have won four of their last five games in all competitions, including a 5-2 win over Nürnberg in midweek, and they sit in a Champions League league stage place. The caveat is the 0-3 defeat at Hoffenheim on 25 October, which showed the side can be blanked, and the fact that they have conceded 12 league goals in seven games.

Stuttgart's story is a split season. In Europe and the cup they have won 3-0 at Slovan Bratislava, drawn with Atletico Madrid and won 1-0 at Paderborn. In the Bundesliga they have lost five of seven and sit 15th with 6 points. A trip to the BayArena is a tough place to try to turn that around, but a result would change the mood quickly.

Both sides come in after a midweek cup game on 28 October, so freshness and squad depth are part of the picture. Leverkusen's list of absentees makes that more of an issue for them than for Stuttgart.

There is also a recent history to consider. Stuttgart have won the last two meetings between these clubs by a combined 7-2, which gives the visitors some evidence that they can cause Leverkusen problems despite the gap in the table.

Where Leverkusen vs Stuttgart will be decided

The first contest is Leverkusen's home scoring against Stuttgart's away defence. Leverkusen average 3.5 goals at home over their last two games. Stuttgart have conceded only once in three away games. One of those numbers will give way, and that tends to decide the match. The sample sizes are small, so treat both as indicators rather than facts of nature.

The second is Stuttgart's league defending against a Leverkusen side that scores in bulk. Stuttgart have conceded 13 in seven league games, a figure that sits awkwardly with their strong away numbers across competitions. If their cup and European defensive discipline carries over, they can keep the match close. If their league pattern holds, Leverkusen should find chances.

The third is the other end for Leverkusen. They have conceded 3 in two home games and 6 in their last five overall. Stuttgart do not score heavily, with 1.4 per game across their last five and 10 in seven league games, but they scored three goals in each of their last two visits to Leverkusen or Stuttgart in this fixture. If Leverkusen's defence is disrupted by absences, Stuttgart need only a few clear chances.

Finally, depth. With seven Leverkusen players unavailable or doubtful, the lineup that starts matters, and the bench that finishes the game may matter more in the last 20 minutes.

Leverkusen vs Stuttgart head-to-head

The six most recent meetings, from April 2024 to May 2026, have produced 24 goals, an average of 4.0 per game. Both teams scored in five of them and five went over 2.5 goals. Only the 0-0 in November 2024 broke the pattern.

Going through the results, Stuttgart have won two (3-1 on 9 May 2026 and 4-1 at the BayArena on 10 January 2026), Leverkusen have won one (4-3 at Stuttgart on 16 March 2025) and three have been drawn: 2-2 in the Bundesliga in April 2024, 2-2 in the Super Cup in August 2024 and 0-0 at the BayArena in November 2024.

The record at the BayArena is the important detail. Of the four listed meetings there, Leverkusen have won none, drawing three and losing the January 2026 game 1-4. Scoring has been plentiful, and the one goalless draw is the exception.

Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart prediction

Our lean is a Leverkusen win, with the match more open than a table gap of 11 places suggests. Leverkusen have scored 13 in their last five games and 7 in their last two at home. Stuttgart have lost five of seven in the league. Those two facts point to the home side controlling more of the game and creating more chances.

The lean on goals is for a high-scoring match. Five of the last six meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, both teams scored in five, and Leverkusen's two latest home games both went over 2.5 with both sides scoring. Stuttgart's strong away defensive record is the main argument against, as they have conceded once in three away games and kept two clean sheets.

What could change this read is the team news. Seven Leverkusen names are on the absence list, and if Doue is missing too the home side will be thinner than their recent scoring suggests. If Diehl or Zagadou is unavailable for Stuttgart, the visitors lose defensive cover. Stuttgart's results at the BayArena, with no Leverkusen win in the four listed home meetings, also mean a draw or away win should not be dismissed.

MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart

The match is on Saturday 31 October 2026 at the BayArena, and the page shows kick-off in your own time zone. The official broadcasters in our data are listed by country below.

In Germany: Sky Sport, DAZN, Sat.1 and RTL. In the United Kingdom: Sky Sports, BBC and Prime Video. In Ireland: Sky Sports and Prime Video. In the United States: USA Network, Fandango, Telemundo, Universo and Peacock. In Canada: OneSoccer. In Spain: DAZN. In Indonesia: MNC. In Vietnam: TV360.

Shahid and MBC Action are listed in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Djibouti, Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, Oman, the Palestinian Territories, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Somalia, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen.

If your country is not listed, check the Bundesliga's official broadcast partner where you live and its official app. Broadcast arrangements can change, so confirm the details with the broadcaster before the match.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

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