Alaves vs Malaga prediction, team news and preview

Alaves vs Malaga: what the match decides

Alaves host Malaga at the Estadio de Mendizorroza on Friday 23 October 2026 in round 10 of La Liga. The table suggests a mismatch. Alaves are seventh on 11 points from nine games, while Malaga are 20th on 4 points and sit in the relegation zone that leads to LaLiga2.

For Malaga, the match decides whether they can finally register a first win of the season. They have drawn four and lost five of their nine games. For Alaves, it is a chance to end a slide of four defeats in their last five league matches before it costs them their place in the top half. Barcelona lead the division on 27 points, 16 more than Alaves, so the gap at the top is already wide.

The short answer to the question most readers have is that Alaves are the more likely winners, but not by the margin the standings imply. Their own form is poor, and Malaga have shown they can score and be involved in open games. The sections below explain why we lean to the hosts without treating the result as settled.

Alaves and Malaga recent form

Alaves have lost four of their last five league games (LLDLL) and have no wins in that run. They have scored 3 and conceded 7, which works out at 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. They kept one clean sheet, the 0-0 draw at Athletic Club on 19 September, and failed to score twice. Both teams scored in three of the five, and three also went over 2.5 goals.

Their home form inside that window is the real worry. They lost 0-1 to Valencia and 1-2 to Atletico Madrid, scoring 1 and conceding 3 across the two games. Alaves' season record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats means all three of their wins came before this run began, which explains why they still sit seventh despite the slump.

Malaga's last five (DLLDL) brought no wins, two draws and three defeats. They scored 5 and conceded 11, which is 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded per game, and they did not keep a clean sheet. They failed to score once, both teams scored in four of the five, and two games went over 2.5 goals. The latest result was a 2-5 home defeat to Real Sociedad on 18 October.

Away from home, the two games in that window were a 1-1 draw at Celta Vigo and a 0-1 defeat at Getafe. That is one goal scored and two conceded, or 0.5 and 1.0 per game. Over the full season Malaga have scored 6 and conceded 18, a goal difference of minus 12, and the worst record in the division on points.

Alaves vs Malaga team news

Alaves have two players ruled out. F. Garces is suspended and M. Rodriguez is out with an ankle injury. Our data does not list their positions, so we cannot say which area of the side is most affected, but with only two absences the hosts should be able to field a largely settled team.

Malaga have the longer list. J. Lobete and A. Ochoa are both out with knee injuries, while J. Cruz (muscle injury) and D. Murillo (knee injury) are doubtful. Four of the six absences across the two clubs are Malaga's, and the two doubts could swell that number further if either fails a late fitness check.

For a side that has conceded 11 goals in five games, losing players is a concern, and the picture could change if Cruz and Murillo are cleared. Their availability is worth checking close to the match.

No line-ups have been published in our data so far. Teams are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, and the expected starters will be clear once they are announced.

Alaves and Malaga storylines

The main storyline for Alaves is a fall from a promising start. The three wins they have in the table came before this run, and the last five games have brought a draw and four defeats. Their latest result was a 1-2 loss at Celta Vigo on 18 October, eight days after a 1-2 home defeat to Atletico Madrid.

There is a thread running through those results. All four of their recent defeats were by a single goal: 1-2 at Racing Santander, 0-1 at home to Valencia, 1-2 against Atletico Madrid and 1-2 at Celta Vigo. They have been close without taking points, and a home game against the bottom side is an obvious moment to turn narrow losses into a result.

Malaga's story is one of a winless start. Nine games have produced 4 points, all from draws, and just 6 goals scored. Their 1-1 draw at home to Espanyol on 9 October looked like a platform, but the 2-5 defeat to Real Sociedad nine days later undid much of that. Conceding five at home will weigh on any side.

What this match can change is clear for both. A win for Alaves would stop the slide and move them 14 points clear of Malaga's total. A draw would add to Malaga's collection, and a victory would end the winless run.

Where Alaves vs Malaga will be decided

The most important contest is Alaves' attack against Malaga's defence. Alaves have scored only 0.6 goals per game in their last five and 0.5 per game in their two recent home matches. Malaga have conceded 2.2 per game in the same window and have not kept a clean sheet. One side is short of goals and the other leaks them, which makes a goal for Alaves more likely than their form alone suggests.

The reverse contest favours the hosts too, but less clearly. Malaga score 1.0 goals per game in their last five and 0.5 on their recent away trips, and they failed to score in one of five. Alaves concede 1.4 per game and 1.5 at home in the window, so Malaga's route to a goal is real, particularly if Alaves continue to concede first.

On tempo, both sides have been involved in open matches. Both teams scored in three of Alaves' last five and four of Malaga's, while over 2.5 goals appeared in three and two respectively. That makes a low-scoring game less certain than Alaves' dry run of scoring would suggest.

Our data does not break goals down into set pieces or open play, so we will not claim an edge from dead balls. The numbers point to something simpler. Alaves' ability to turn narrow games their way against a defence that has shipped 18 goals is the likely deciding factor.

Alaves vs Malaga head-to-head

The six meetings in our data favour Alaves clearly. They have won four, drawn one and lost one, with an average of 2.17 goals per game. Both teams scored in three of the six, and three went over 2.5 goals.

The most recent meeting was in Segunda Division on 20 May 2023, when Alaves won 2-1. Malaga took the earlier game that season 1-0 at home on 18 December 2022, their only win in the series. The last La Liga meeting was on 6 May 2018, when Alaves won 3-0 at Malaga.

Earlier La Liga games finished Alaves 1-0 Malaga in December 2017, Malaga 1-2 Alaves in March 2017 and Alaves 1-1 Malaga in October 2016. At Mendizorroza, Alaves have won twice and drawn once in the three meetings we have, and have not lost to Malaga there.

These games are several years old, and both squads will have changed since, so the record is context rather than a driver. It does suggest Malaga have rarely found a way to win in the Basque Country.

Alaves vs Malaga prediction

Our lean is a narrow Alaves win. The shape of the game should be a hosts-led contest where Alaves probe a defence that has conceded 2.2 goals per game, while Malaga look to stay in touch and score on the break.

Three facts drive that view. Malaga are winless after nine games and have not kept a clean sheet in their last five. Alaves are seventh and still have a better season record than their recent form suggests. Malaga also have four players on the absence list, two of them doubtful.

On goals, we lean to a total of two or three. Malaga have scored in four of their last five, and Alaves' recent games have included goals at both ends, but neither side scores freely enough to point firmly to a high-scoring match. A scoreline such as 2-1 or 1-0 fits the numbers best.

The case against this lean is straightforward. Alaves have lost four of five and have scored just 3 goals in that run, so another blank is possible. If Malaga's doubtful players return and they stay compact, a draw is a realistic result. MATCH PULSE's three AI engines (GPT, Claude and Gemini) publish their independent analysis of the match before kick-off.

How to watch Alaves vs Malaga

No official broadcasters are listed in our data for this match. To watch it live legally, check the official broadcast partner for La Liga in your country and its official app.

Broadcast rights differ from country to country, so confirm the partner for your region before the match. The kick-off time is shown on this page in your own time zone, and the game is played on Friday 23 October 2026.

Only official rights holders are listed; availability can change. Watching through unofficial streams is unsafe and unfair to the clubs.

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